Last year the world economy grew by 5% , the fastest in recent years, led by extraordinary growth in China and a very high growth in countries in the world, most of the other third. United States and Japan also have very strong growth, despite the Wests most pathetic performance. Can the good times last? Or global economic crisis?
Global economic boom has been rejected by two factors.
This has been driven by the progressive liberalization of world trade and liberalization of the worlds major economies such as China and India third. Level of average rates in countries such as China have been reduced from 41% in 1992 to 6% in 2004. greater liberalization of world trade has increased the volume of international division of labor and help increase growth in the world to remain whole and especially in third world countries. Especially if trade is not over, this factor will continue to help the world economy to grow. Another reason for the increase in economic growth that appears is the free market reforms, carried out by countries like China will be one of the most damaging communist system in human history (which is said to be many) into a virtual paradise of capitalism "to seem not exhausted resources work cheap, but competent and well being of no country and no union, and many other developing countries that free market reforms of the various stages of radicalism.
But there are also dark side of the current boom. This is driven by cheap money policy the Federal Reserve. And not just the U.S. economy depends on this foundation is not stable. Most of the rest of the world also rely on cheap money policy of the Federal Reserve. This is in part because of the world has become increasingly dependent on the growth of trade surplus with the United States created by excess demand in the U.S. is produced by Bold and the policies of that is because the U.S. dollar bearish pressure for lower interest rates to mimic other central banks cheap money policy Fed to prevent their currenciesrising too quickly against the U.S. dollar value. In addition, global economic growth is also preferredstructural problems in Europe and Japan.
To better understand the global economic outlook, we must analyze in detail the strengths and weaknesses of the four major strength of the global economy: the U.S., the European Union, Japan and China. As the prime mover of the global movement of global economy, make sense to focus on them. There are some big developing countries like India, Brazil and Russia could also be discussed.
We start with the U.S. economy. with strong U.S. economy is that it is still one of the more market-oriented economy in the world, with the level perpajakan and regulations were much lower than in European nations and Japan. The company is also developing financial markets and institutions of higher education. This is what has contributed to America is the richest country in the world (apart from small Luxembourg) and the results are better than most rich countries to another. Although some U.S. politicians to destroy the benefits will still be a positive factor in coming years.
Achilles heel of the U.S. economy relying heavily on cheap loans. Five years ago, the U.S. experienced the largest price bubble of the 1920s with valuasi technology shares, the ridiculously quality. bubble was driven by rapid expansion of money and was accompanied by a sharp increase in private sector debt and deficit balance running transactions, which they reached a new record.
Level of private sector financial savings, which usually fluctuates counter-cyclical, which fluctuated between a surplus of around 5% of GDP in the recession and around zero for a booming, has terlempar into negative territory at -6% of GDP.
When the bubble burst in the spring of 2000, the U.S. economy emerged as the background, set to a severe recession. But the recession in 2001 following the stock price bubble Meledaknya very light. Avoid a severe recession all by mixing a combination of tax cuts and increased production, and wound more quickly and higher interest rate in U.S. history, the real interest rate declined to negative territory for the first time since 1970.
But this success to avoid a deep recession that occurred at the cost of maintenance and actually worsen the imbalance that created a recession in 2001. The end of the stock market bubble followed by the creation of another bubble, this time at home. Usually for a recession, and private sector debt declining household and business balance sheets of the net savings quality. But while the balance was restored after a sharp decline in business investment and profits of a family record in spending spree has never happened before, owed more households than ever before, and save up to approximately 5.
As a result, budget deficit and domestic production of oats, this time against current musical trends of the recession, the deficit rose to the level of transactions running high, the private sector debt continued to rise while the number of private sector financial savings in fixed unprecedented weakness in the recession of that was even in booming. And when the economy recovered from recession, debt accumulation, of course, have increased levels.
So, besides the fact that too high voting shares less than five years and now a strong company balance sheet, basic ketimpangan in the U.S. economy is actually greater now than then. This makes the U.S. economy vulnerable to crisis. And this imbalance even larger and more meaningful for the politicians and the central bank to reduce the crisis will be more limited because interest rates are far lower and the financial deficit, not surplus.
So, when they come from the crisis? The exact date of introduction is not possible, of course. This will be the base when the current rise, super low interest rate that is, delete, and / or imbalances become so great that fall under its own weight. You can also say that it is not possible in the future. Although there are some signs that the housing boom started late, this will be offset by the expected further increase in business investment.
With the level of company profits at near record levels remain well below the historical average andbusiness investment remain below the historical average, it means that the company not only CASH will be required to finance the large investments without much external capital, but more important than the profit on the investment level is very high, so there is a strong incentive to increase investment.
The decrease is likely to contribute to a stable increase in the deficit and debt transactions run the private sector.
So in conclusion, if we can be quite optimistic about the U.S. economy in the short term because of the explosion and likely long-term business investment because the economic structure is relatively fixed market-oriented, making the imbalance created by the Feds cheap money policy of a potential severe recession and a half-term prospects . But can, if strong possibility of recession will cause a reaction in the form of highly damaging protectionist, higher tax and production, or high inflation may cause long-term outlook is more pessimistic.
Europe for a long time left behind the United States and other countries in growth. Or, at least. European Union as a whole course, there are large differences between European countries. This is especially the countries three major euro zone, Germany, France and Italy, which had grown bleak. British and Spanish had a stronger growth, while Ireland and Luxembourg have been growing really unique. But like Germany, France and Italy account for more than two-thirds of the economy in the euro area, while Ireland and Luxembourg are the two smallest countries in the euro zone, their economy is more or less identical with the development across Europe.
Its clear that the vast myth causes economic problems in Europe are too tight monetary policy of the ECB. This claim repeatedly made by politicians in various countries and the European press of business establishments. And Larry Kudlow even accused the ECB to carry out the land "fire deflationary" monetary policy. But this reputation as a kind of fortress ECB money (unfortunately) completely wrong. Has exceeded the ECBs own target for monetary growth and inflation. During his 6 years, M3 has grown average of 6.7% compared with the speed of growth of 4.5% and consumer price inflation has average charge of 2.2% v target of below 2%. At the end of 2004, negative interest rates in the short term, consumer price inflation was 2.4%, M3 growth of 6.4% and growth in private sector debt 6.9%. The reason behind the ECBs false reputation as a stronghold of money that appears to be a false syllogism "weak growth is a result of tight monetary policy. Europe has weak growth. That is why Europe must have a tight monetary policy." But as the first policy is false, so is the conclusion of the syllogism.
However, the cause of weak growth in Europe was two, the highest percentage on the roots.
One, government spending and the high administrative burden is much more expensive than in the United States and China.
Second, the quickly aging population in Europe as a whole and especially in Germany and Italy. In countries such as Germany, France and Italy, the retirement age of 55 music and 60 years. With the average age in Germany and Italy are expected to almost 55 in 2050, this would mean that there will be much older than the older pensioners in the population of working age. In combination with the large number of working age living on welfare, it means the collapse of fiscal and large decline in the supply of labor and capital. This process took the victims, especially in Italy and Germany. Of course, the aging population need not be a problem for the economy, with the conditions that increase retirement age average in relation to the Middle Ages. But retirement has proved very difficult. When the French government to raise the age for workers pensiun 55-57,5 publicity in the summer of 2003, causing major protests and strikes, and all the politicians trying to increase the retirement age will have the same large protest and strike, and probably will opt out of the office by National welfare addicts.
But unless the European politicians to take drastic action to stop the demographic explosion, increasing employment opportunities and increase the retirement age, this problem will get worse with time.
Germany recently to take some temporary measures to reduce the administrative burden is high and unemployment benefits, but these measures may not be enough to revive the German economy. European economic outlook is pessimistic. Unless European politicians dramatically change their welfare policies can be static outside of Europe to continue to decline relative to both the short and long term. And all the economic decline in Asia and the United States and further decline in the dollar could damage European export market, industry, and thus eliminate the only source of Europe has until now.
Europe is a bright point for the incorporation of East European economies are relatively free market, where tax rates are very low not only compared to Western Europe, but also compared with the United States. Not surprisingly, this resulted in the rapid economic growth. And the countries of Eastern Europe has become part of the European Union will support overall growth. In addition, the increased tax competition from Eastern Europe is beginning to get some Western European countries to lower taxes, particularly taxes on companies will increase their competitiveness. If for example in Eastern Europe to encourage countries in Western Europe to lower taxes and slash social production, so the prospect can be more clear. But unfortunately, there seems very likely.
Japan has long been a star rose in the world economy, its more than Europe and America. But after a big share in Japan Bubble hotel in the late 1980s upset the Japanese economy has experienced a stagnation in the growth rate is lower than in Europe.
This is mainly because the banking system has been hampered by the large mass jammed credit. Japanese authorities have been willing to consider short-term pain associated with the liquidation of credit to be stuck and prolonged stagnation. Japan also share a lot of problems in Europe.
While Japan has a much lighter tax burden than Europe, the burden of administration, if the worse. And flexible economic structures created by the administrative burden redistribusi quality has become a source of inefficient companies is made more difficult by the inflationary boom of the United States. For this reason, the administrative burden of creating more problems for Japan now than before 1990.
Japan also faces demographic problems even worse in Europe. Japan has more people aged 65 or more people under 20 years, only Italy as well. And what is worse. Because there is less than 24 ½ million Japanese people aged under 20, while some 35 million, half of the 45-64 year age group, it means that Japans working age will be reduced by more than 11 million or 14% over the next 20 years, whereas population is expected to fall only a few million. As in Europe, this will make a huge tax burden and reduce the supply of labor and capital, unless the retirement age. Which in turn guarantees a rate of growth rather sad.
One bright point in the Japanese economy grew in China. Chinas geographical proximity means that the Japanese media to take advantage of the increasing Western economic division of labor in this country. China has followed the United States as the largest trading partner. But Japans recent export growth to China saw a sharp decrease as a result of successful efforts by the Chinese government restrict credit. But in the long run, Japan should be preserved to benefit more from China to the United States and Europe.
Another thing positive is that Japan will also benefit from the private sector has a lot to reduce the burden of debt, debt in the lowest level in more than 30 years. This means that Japanese companies do not risk another economic bust as a result of tight credit conditions.
Its medium term, however, is overshadowed by the crisis in the U.S. and its impact on China and the world. And fall of demographic and labor resources and capital reduction, which means increased load on the economy.
Since Deng Xiaoping, China began economic liberalization and as a result has developed highly unusual. Having been damaged for centuries by the English and Japanese imperialists, the destruction of civil war, and the 30 year mark of communism Mao Zedong, China has started to regain former status as an economic power.
According to official statistics on GDP by kurs dikonversi this time, the Chinese economy is still smaller than the British. But this figure is actually from China Camping measure, because no matter that the price was much lower in China than in the United. In all indirect indicators of economic size, Chinas economy is far greater than English. China, for example. Batubara largest customer, fertilizer and other commodities and second-largest oil customer (the U.S.) It is also the third largest trading partner in the world after the United States and Germany. China is clearly far more important for the global economy and that United will become more important in the future.
There are many reasons to believe that China will continue the extraordinary growth of the speed of at least the next decade. Not well, no unions and a large labor supply and savings, "communist" China is a paradise for capitalists. And as shown in the success of ethnic Chinese business in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and throughout Southeast Asia, China has a strong entrepreneurial spirit. And communism is no longer producing this enormous growth potential.
Although the estimated number of farmers in China vary widely depending on who you ask, even the lowest estimate calculates that at least half of the 1.3 billion Chinese people are farmers. If the relative size of the agricultural sector up to Western standards, this means that more than 600 million people will go to work in industry and services. And 600 million people is twice the total population of the United States.
Combining with the fact that China may be the highest level of savings in the world and thus can make the necessary investment for continued high growth rates. As the Economist pointed rejection, a high level of savings is largely due to the lack of well-being of a country that compels people to save if you have enough money, for example, pay medical bills.
Of course there is the potential danger for China, which can at least temporarily derail the strong growth. The rapid transition in the state could cause social unrest. Chinas banking system looks very fragile because the very terbebani the jammed credit. In addition, China is too dependent on exports to the United States. Chinese exports to the U.S. last year was 12% of GDP and bilateral trade surplus was 10% of GDP.
This makes China vulnerable to U.S. economic recession. First, the negative direct effect on exports, and second, because the Chinese might be blamed for the crisis, which may create a serious blow proteksionis would damage the Chinese economy. A yuan revaluation would be a good way for China to reduce reliance on exports to the United States. Though it created a series of short-term negative effects in terms of reduced exports and reduce the value of American assets will also reduce the cost of imports. And most importantly, China proteksionis well as reduce the risk of action alleged "rigging" the eyes money (as if there is any currency that is not manipulated at this time) will be lost, and reduce the damage caused by actions such as proteksionis higher dollar value of Chinas economy made by the revaluation will reduce the relative importance of exports to the United States.
On the other hand, China faces potential conflict with the United States in the rebel separatist group "" Taiwan region.
Prospects for China is very good, as long as they can avoid some hazards mentioned above.
This means that even short-term prospects for Chinas economy is strong, carry serious dangers of every crisis the U.S. economy, which in turn raises the risk of social instability and a fragile banking system. If China achieved through this crisis without breakage of the civil war, a reversal of market reforms, or a dramatic increase protectionist west or the problem of war in Taiwan, but you should be able to continue the impressive growth.
History of several large developing countries such as Brazil, India and Russia, have many similarities with China, and also began to liberalize their economies, which have helped to increase their growth rates. Its potential can not be as great as that done by the Chinese because their culture is less inclined to save and entrepreneurial culture as China and Brazil and Russia are far smaller population and a contraction in the case of Russia. India is also affected by the unofficial caste system that makes it more difficult to communicate the success of the Chinese population. Russian economy, and Brazil is a highly dangerous dependence on oil and agriculture, respectively. However, many other developing countries tend to grow in importance.
For the world economy as a whole, we should in the short term they hope to extend the current boom, but at the expense of worsened global economic imbalances. American debt burden will continue to increase, while the whole world will grow increasingly dependent on exports to the United States. In the medium term, a sharp increase in real interest rates and / or reduce confidence in the U.S. will cause a recession, which spread throughout the world in terms of decline in the value of exports to the United States, both for the direct reduction of the demand created by the economic downturn and the effect of indirect from the dollar to fall and may direct the steps proteksionis. This will contribute much worse than the internal problems of the world.
For the longer term we may see major changes in the global economy with other developed countries and the increasing importance of China, while Europe and Japan will gradually decline in importance. Due to economic difficulties in Europe, it seems unlikely the euro will replace the dollar as world reserve currency. But can the long-term perspective (ie a few decades from now) the Chinese yuan yuan assume that role when the full conversion and when China becomes the largest economy in the world.
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